* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912014 09/07/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 32 37 52 64 74 84 88 92 93 96 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 32 37 52 64 74 84 88 92 93 96 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 27 32 38 44 50 56 64 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 18 14 10 4 2 8 9 6 6 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 8 7 8 11 15 5 0 -1 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 74 69 64 56 45 78 214 163 178 238 287 295 287 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.2 27.1 26.2 25.8 25.7 26.0 26.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 132 132 132 128 128 118 114 113 116 123 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 133 134 133 133 129 128 115 110 108 112 119 128 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -52.9 -53.5 -53.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.2 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 73 74 77 76 76 71 66 61 58 55 50 47 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 15 17 17 18 23 26 29 32 33 35 34 35 850 MB ENV VOR 129 145 142 154 145 114 84 83 94 117 103 105 110 200 MB DIV 50 54 93 106 77 86 83 51 53 14 -10 1 22 700-850 TADV 6 1 -2 -5 -5 0 2 3 2 2 5 7 9 LAND (KM) 105 168 239 241 310 524 795 1107 1428 1747 2076 2138 1903 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.8 10.1 10.7 11.3 13.0 14.8 16.5 17.9 19.0 19.8 20.3 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 15.0 16.1 17.3 18.4 19.5 22.0 24.9 27.7 30.5 33.6 36.9 40.6 44.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 14 15 17 15 16 16 17 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 2 4 6 8 6 4 3 1 0 0 4 7 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 471 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 9. 12. 16. 19. 19. 20. 18. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 32. 44. 54. 64. 68. 72. 73. 76. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912014 INVEST 09/07/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912014 INVEST 09/07/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED