* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902014 09/07/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 34 32 31 30 29 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 34 32 31 30 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 26 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 18 18 21 21 22 29 28 31 26 30 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -3 -3 -4 -2 -10 -4 -2 1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 178 184 194 208 215 222 238 226 236 227 236 226 239 SST (C) 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.5 27.0 27.4 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 120 119 118 118 120 125 129 134 136 139 141 143 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 117 114 114 115 117 119 121 120 122 125 127 130 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.5 -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 39 36 35 36 36 33 34 34 33 33 37 39 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 8 9 8 8 7 6 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 23 9 -2 -20 -29 -45 -50 -62 -80 -90 -75 -56 -39 200 MB DIV 6 9 -1 13 21 -1 -2 -9 1 1 12 -18 -13 700-850 TADV 18 25 26 23 26 30 23 13 0 -9 -9 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 1867 2035 2034 1983 1944 1900 1938 2017 2005 1909 1784 1646 1479 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.5 18.1 19.4 20.8 22.2 23.1 23.6 23.7 23.9 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 34.9 36.4 38.0 39.3 40.7 43.1 44.9 46.2 47.1 48.2 49.5 51.0 52.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 15 14 14 12 10 8 6 6 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 6 8 10 7 5 10 15 35 40 44 42 37 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 19. 23. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -6. -10. -13. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902014 INVEST 09/07/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902014 INVEST 09/07/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)