* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912014 09/07/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 34 44 56 64 72 75 79 78 79 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 34 44 56 64 72 75 79 78 79 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 30 35 40 44 48 52 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 18 13 11 6 6 9 10 13 15 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 6 7 7 7 7 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 62 63 68 71 85 115 150 188 216 226 237 235 247 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.1 27.2 26.5 25.9 25.8 25.9 26.5 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 129 131 131 131 131 127 128 120 114 114 115 121 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 132 132 132 132 127 127 117 110 108 109 116 126 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 74 76 75 76 74 72 69 64 59 55 52 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 13 15 17 20 21 24 25 28 27 28 850 MB ENV VOR 131 129 135 132 112 84 70 72 81 94 87 70 71 200 MB DIV 53 69 85 48 33 82 73 87 65 52 38 28 16 700-850 TADV 4 1 0 0 1 1 4 2 5 6 8 8 11 LAND (KM) 213 253 273 314 404 595 827 1112 1407 1702 1983 2269 2102 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.6 10.1 10.7 11.3 13.0 14.6 16.1 17.4 18.7 19.8 20.8 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 16.0 17.1 18.1 19.3 20.4 22.7 25.2 27.8 30.4 33.1 36.0 39.3 43.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 14 15 14 14 15 15 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 1 1 1 4 3 3 2 0 4 12 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 10. 13. 12. 15. 13. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 24. 36. 44. 52. 55. 59. 58. 59. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912014 INVEST 09/07/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912014 INVEST 09/07/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)