* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902014 09/07/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 20 22 24 26 28 29 32 33 33 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 20 22 24 26 28 29 32 33 33 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 17 17 17 16 16 16 16 17 19 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 19 17 17 16 22 21 29 18 24 22 30 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 -1 0 1 -3 -8 0 -4 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 175 193 215 226 219 231 227 237 243 216 214 233 235 SST (C) 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.7 27.1 27.5 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 119 120 120 120 122 126 131 135 138 142 143 144 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 117 116 116 117 119 121 123 122 123 122 124 126 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.9 -54.9 -55.1 -54.7 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 38 36 35 34 33 32 34 35 36 37 38 39 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 8 7 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 7 -7 -19 -29 -46 -57 -67 -78 -74 -79 -67 -63 200 MB DIV 14 7 15 13 20 0 6 -8 17 -28 21 -32 -21 700-850 TADV 22 27 24 25 25 28 19 24 7 1 -5 -5 -2 LAND (KM) 2007 2000 1928 1877 1830 1794 1833 1886 1866 1831 1807 1745 1669 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.2 16.7 17.3 17.8 19.0 20.4 22.0 23.5 24.5 25.1 25.4 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 36.2 37.7 39.2 40.6 42.0 44.3 46.3 47.7 48.6 49.3 49.8 50.6 51.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 15 14 13 12 11 9 7 5 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 8 12 8 5 5 19 17 31 44 38 36 32 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 12. 13. 13. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902014 INVEST 09/07/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902014 INVEST 09/07/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902014 INVEST 09/07/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED