* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902014 09/08/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 17 17 17 18 20 21 21 22 23 22 V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 17 17 17 18 20 21 21 22 23 22 V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 17 17 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 18 16 16 21 20 24 23 30 29 35 38 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 0 0 -1 1 -5 -3 -3 -2 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 190 205 215 210 212 233 226 228 218 220 216 234 229 SST (C) 26.4 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.2 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 119 119 121 122 123 127 130 133 135 138 141 143 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 116 117 117 117 120 120 121 120 122 125 127 131 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.8 -54.9 -54.8 -54.7 -54.6 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 11 10 11 11 12 11 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 37 35 34 33 33 33 33 36 35 37 36 36 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 -5 -16 -23 -27 -47 -57 -73 -80 -78 -68 -65 -53 200 MB DIV 8 10 13 10 -6 3 -13 1 -13 5 0 4 -18 700-850 TADV 26 23 25 23 25 22 20 14 1 -3 -5 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 1990 1914 1850 1810 1769 1717 1756 1765 1733 1626 1507 1356 1200 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.3 17.8 18.7 20.0 21.2 22.2 22.7 23.0 23.1 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 37.5 38.9 40.3 41.6 42.9 45.2 47.1 48.5 49.6 50.8 52.1 53.7 55.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 12 11 10 8 6 6 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 6 5 8 17 16 23 36 34 36 44 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 3. -1. -5. -10. -14. -17. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902014 INVEST 09/08/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902014 INVEST 09/08/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902014 INVEST 09/08/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED