* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912014 09/08/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 49 57 65 70 75 77 78 79 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 49 57 65 70 75 77 78 79 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 40 47 53 59 64 68 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 12 9 8 6 7 9 13 17 14 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 6 4 5 7 3 0 -6 -8 -6 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 82 77 79 84 96 122 131 167 198 211 226 246 252 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.4 26.6 26.1 25.9 26.0 26.6 27.1 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 130 128 128 131 121 116 115 116 122 128 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 131 130 128 127 129 118 113 111 112 118 123 128 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -53.1 -53.5 -52.7 -53.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 72 74 74 72 71 70 65 63 58 53 50 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 18 18 19 18 20 22 22 24 850 MB ENV VOR 127 124 106 95 84 79 67 90 88 95 85 82 83 200 MB DIV 46 37 67 63 66 90 55 63 55 45 19 11 -3 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 1 5 3 3 4 7 3 2 2 LAND (KM) 428 460 525 631 708 915 1183 1482 1820 2159 2015 1826 1658 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 10.3 11.1 11.9 12.7 14.3 15.7 16.9 17.7 18.6 19.1 19.4 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 19.6 20.6 21.5 22.6 23.7 26.0 28.5 31.2 34.3 37.5 40.9 44.4 47.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 15 16 16 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 1 11 1 5 4 5 6 1 1 7 5 17 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 7. 6. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 24. 32. 40. 45. 50. 52. 53. 54. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912014 INVEST 09/08/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912014 INVEST 09/08/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)