* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942014 09/08/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 28 38 46 52 54 59 63 69 71 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 25 28 38 46 52 54 59 63 69 71 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 25 28 33 38 42 44 45 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 5 7 7 6 12 17 17 14 14 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -4 -4 -3 -1 -2 2 2 3 1 2 SHEAR DIR 103 102 134 125 118 78 79 84 86 69 45 45 56 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 161 162 163 163 160 156 152 148 147 143 139 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 83 84 83 82 82 82 83 81 82 79 80 77 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 8 8 10 9 10 9 11 13 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR 6 4 0 -2 -15 -14 -12 -6 18 39 59 82 89 200 MB DIV 69 54 55 69 48 68 60 72 85 64 94 92 127 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -3 -5 -7 -4 -3 -2 -6 -5 -7 LAND (KM) 544 526 510 491 472 430 380 362 363 386 436 523 626 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.9 12.3 12.8 13.2 14.2 15.1 15.9 16.4 16.6 16.6 16.4 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 100.0 100.6 101.1 101.7 102.3 103.6 104.7 105.7 106.5 107.2 107.9 108.8 109.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 8 6 6 4 3 4 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 22 26 33 40 47 65 68 56 39 28 23 17 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 38. 40. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 4. 5. 4. 7. 10. 17. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 18. 26. 32. 34. 39. 43. 49. 51. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942014 INVEST 09/08/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 2.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942014 INVEST 09/08/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##