* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942014 09/08/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 23 27 36 43 48 54 59 66 71 71 V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 23 27 36 43 48 54 59 66 71 71 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 22 24 28 32 36 39 41 43 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 7 7 6 10 14 17 11 13 10 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -4 -4 -4 -3 1 -1 3 3 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 113 149 124 121 103 80 81 86 74 51 35 56 108 SST (C) 29.4 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 161 162 164 164 163 160 157 154 152 149 144 136 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -52.1 -52.7 -52.0 -52.8 -51.8 -52.4 -51.3 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 7 6 9 7 9 8 9 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 84 83 83 82 84 83 83 80 80 79 79 76 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 10 9 9 10 12 16 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR 6 0 0 -9 -12 -8 -9 3 29 54 70 98 114 200 MB DIV 53 58 70 39 49 64 49 90 64 85 73 85 109 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -7 -5 -4 -1 -3 -3 -7 0 LAND (KM) 492 473 454 435 416 360 324 304 300 329 394 483 611 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.5 12.9 13.4 13.8 14.9 15.8 16.6 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 100.0 100.6 101.2 101.8 102.4 103.8 104.9 105.7 106.4 107.1 108.0 109.1 110.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 8 6 5 3 4 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 24 30 39 44 50 68 59 45 36 28 21 17 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 36. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 7. 14. 19. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 7. 16. 23. 28. 34. 39. 46. 51. 51. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942014 INVEST 09/08/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942014 INVEST 09/08/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##