* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912014 09/08/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 41 51 62 71 76 78 77 76 74 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 41 51 62 71 76 78 77 76 74 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 38 45 52 58 61 63 64 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 6 5 5 6 9 9 13 18 20 26 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 6 6 1 1 -3 -4 -4 -3 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 64 70 102 99 83 116 157 212 229 246 245 265 256 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.5 27.6 27.1 26.2 26.0 25.9 26.3 27.1 27.7 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 128 131 133 127 117 115 114 119 127 135 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 127 131 131 125 113 111 109 113 122 128 130 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.3 -53.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 71 72 72 71 72 69 70 63 59 57 55 56 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 15 16 19 21 23 24 24 24 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 102 93 84 81 74 60 85 79 78 68 59 53 45 200 MB DIV 44 56 51 62 85 38 97 65 45 22 26 25 38 700-850 TADV -1 -1 1 3 4 3 3 3 4 3 5 7 4 LAND (KM) 559 640 729 808 904 1138 1424 1726 2019 2215 2100 2020 1841 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 11.2 12.0 12.8 13.6 15.0 16.5 17.7 18.9 20.0 21.0 21.9 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 21.6 22.6 23.6 24.7 25.8 28.1 30.7 33.4 36.2 39.1 42.2 45.5 48.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 15 15 15 16 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 5 7 4 2 2 6 4 0 2 8 12 31 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 16. 26. 37. 46. 51. 53. 52. 51. 49. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912014 INVEST 09/08/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912014 INVEST 09/08/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED