* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942014 09/08/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 45 60 68 79 88 94 96 92 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 45 60 68 79 88 94 96 92 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 39 44 51 57 63 69 75 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 10 10 8 14 13 16 17 14 10 6 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -5 -5 -1 1 1 5 0 3 0 3 5 SHEAR DIR 125 104 107 95 93 66 65 48 49 34 28 154 125 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 159 162 163 164 163 161 160 158 160 162 162 163 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -51.3 -51.0 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 85 85 84 83 81 84 83 82 81 81 78 79 79 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 10 14 15 20 25 27 29 29 850 MB ENV VOR 4 0 0 -2 0 2 5 19 17 39 42 73 96 200 MB DIV 60 72 42 71 67 67 92 120 119 114 106 70 79 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -6 -3 0 0 0 -6 -6 -2 LAND (KM) 462 435 414 405 396 379 374 384 409 395 322 226 161 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.6 14.3 14.7 14.7 14.5 14.6 15.3 16.6 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 99.2 99.8 100.3 100.9 101.5 102.7 103.5 103.9 104.0 103.9 103.9 104.5 105.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 7 7 7 5 3 2 0 2 5 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 20 24 31 39 43 56 67 69 69 69 65 49 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 36. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 11. 17. 24. 29. 32. 30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 20. 35. 43. 54. 63. 69. 71. 67. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942014 INVEST 09/08/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942014 INVEST 09/08/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##