* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912014 09/09/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 40 51 61 69 75 77 76 76 75 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 40 51 61 69 75 77 76 76 75 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 38 45 53 59 63 65 66 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 8 8 8 4 7 11 20 21 28 30 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 6 6 2 3 -1 -6 -7 -3 -3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 67 65 93 93 117 110 187 221 245 259 260 269 238 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.3 27.9 26.9 26.5 26.4 26.7 27.1 27.7 28.4 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 145 142 136 125 120 119 123 127 134 144 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 144 146 142 134 121 117 114 117 121 127 135 140 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 70 71 70 71 72 71 66 61 57 55 55 54 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 14 16 17 19 19 20 20 22 23 850 MB ENV VOR 105 95 89 83 78 70 79 75 57 37 31 15 16 200 MB DIV 39 34 54 79 51 56 75 48 33 37 22 22 51 700-850 TADV -2 -1 3 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 8 5 0 LAND (KM) 762 834 894 979 1076 1323 1613 1913 2169 2201 2134 2048 1768 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.9 12.7 13.6 14.4 15.8 17.2 18.5 19.9 21.1 22.2 23.2 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 23.7 24.6 25.5 26.5 27.5 29.8 32.4 35.1 37.8 40.7 43.7 46.7 49.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 13 13 14 15 14 15 15 15 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 4 2 2 3 5 8 10 4 5 13 22 41 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 456 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 26. 36. 44. 50. 52. 51. 51. 50. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912014 INVEST 09/09/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912014 INVEST 09/09/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED