* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942014 09/09/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 40 49 57 64 68 70 72 72 71 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 40 49 57 64 68 70 72 72 71 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 37 45 53 61 69 75 82 88 93 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 6 7 8 12 13 11 10 4 8 5 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -5 -4 0 0 4 0 6 1 0 5 8 SHEAR DIR 75 74 76 56 55 55 40 49 22 3 26 102 105 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 160 162 164 163 161 160 159 161 161 160 160 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -52.2 -52.8 -51.7 -52.6 -51.3 -51.8 -50.8 -50.9 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 8 7 9 7 9 7 10 8 10 700-500 MB RH 86 85 84 82 82 83 82 82 82 78 74 79 79 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 5 3 3 2 -2 12 11 18 40 45 74 106 200 MB DIV 69 59 76 62 68 69 85 85 119 117 58 53 60 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -2 -4 -2 -1 1 0 0 -7 -4 2 LAND (KM) 422 398 381 369 357 355 380 387 379 342 276 221 195 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.4 14.6 14.6 14.7 15.1 15.9 17.2 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 98.9 99.5 100.0 100.6 101.3 102.4 103.2 103.6 103.7 103.9 104.2 105.2 106.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 7 7 7 5 3 2 1 3 6 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 19 23 30 38 40 50 64 68 68 67 57 44 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 766 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 24. 32. 39. 43. 45. 47. 47. 46. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942014 INVEST 09/09/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 56% is 4.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942014 INVEST 09/09/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##