* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912014 09/09/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 39 48 55 59 62 61 58 56 53 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 39 48 55 59 62 61 58 56 53 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 40 47 53 55 55 53 51 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 9 5 5 4 17 25 32 35 41 38 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 3 0 3 -3 -5 -4 -4 -3 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 67 54 43 48 11 270 259 263 266 258 262 256 249 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.4 26.7 26.5 26.6 26.9 27.4 28.1 28.6 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 140 136 130 122 120 121 125 130 139 146 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 146 140 134 127 119 116 116 118 122 130 136 140 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 67 67 68 69 68 67 62 55 53 52 52 47 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 96 92 86 71 63 76 74 59 48 28 13 10 -5 200 MB DIV 19 43 65 41 19 40 54 41 20 23 12 19 35 700-850 TADV -4 -3 0 3 0 4 7 16 20 17 14 2 5 LAND (KM) 931 998 1078 1174 1278 1540 1831 2108 2201 2134 2098 1910 1658 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.6 13.4 14.2 15.0 16.4 17.7 19.1 20.4 21.6 22.6 23.3 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 25.5 26.4 27.4 28.4 29.4 31.8 34.4 37.1 39.8 42.6 45.3 48.1 50.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 12 16 12 11 8 1 6 14 28 40 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 403 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 6. 3. -2. -7. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 23. 30. 34. 37. 36. 33. 31. 28. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912014 INVEST 09/09/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912014 INVEST 09/09/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)