* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942014 09/09/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 33 45 54 68 79 89 88 90 85 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 33 45 54 68 79 89 88 90 85 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 32 37 41 46 51 58 63 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 7 8 9 8 12 9 6 2 9 15 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 0 2 3 5 7 6 6 5 4 1 1 SHEAR DIR 103 85 78 77 79 59 59 32 44 67 131 116 106 SST (C) 29.4 29.7 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 161 164 165 165 163 161 160 160 160 160 160 159 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -51.5 -50.9 -50.5 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 9 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 87 85 83 84 85 81 80 78 79 75 76 75 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 14 15 20 23 27 25 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR 9 6 1 2 4 9 36 39 65 78 102 107 104 200 MB DIV 53 58 41 49 44 77 105 102 98 110 88 74 92 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -3 -5 -8 -11 -9 -6 LAND (KM) 332 299 268 249 230 212 210 211 200 161 141 157 195 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 7 6 3 2 1 2 4 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 31 36 35 33 36 39 40 40 41 44 41 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 10. 17. 21. 27. 25. 28. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 20. 29. 43. 54. 64. 63. 65. 60. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942014 INVEST 09/09/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942014 INVEST 09/09/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##