* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912014 09/09/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 38 47 56 61 66 67 67 65 63 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 38 47 56 61 66 67 67 65 63 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 40 46 51 55 56 56 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 11 9 11 10 10 16 18 30 31 35 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 3 2 0 -3 -5 -5 -4 -7 -3 -6 -8 SHEAR DIR 101 100 123 114 102 161 217 245 260 256 275 259 271 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.6 26.9 27.4 27.9 28.3 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 136 132 127 123 120 121 124 129 135 141 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 141 133 128 123 118 114 115 116 120 123 128 133 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -52.7 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 67 67 68 69 68 68 62 59 57 56 54 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 17 19 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 95 87 73 64 69 75 68 55 35 21 3 -12 -31 200 MB DIV 37 65 41 17 36 60 48 38 24 22 20 23 2 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 1 1 4 5 7 9 9 5 3 7 LAND (KM) 1036 1112 1196 1305 1417 1657 1924 2164 2170 2167 2169 2129 1940 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.3 14.1 14.7 15.2 16.4 17.6 18.9 20.2 21.6 22.7 23.3 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 26.8 27.7 28.6 29.6 30.7 32.9 35.3 37.6 40.0 42.0 44.0 45.8 48.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 14 18 14 10 12 9 2 5 13 21 33 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 462 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. -1. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 6. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 13. 22. 31. 36. 41. 42. 42. 40. 38. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912014 INVEST 09/09/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912014 INVEST 09/09/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)