* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912014 09/09/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 35 39 50 58 64 67 69 68 66 63 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 35 39 50 58 64 67 69 68 66 63 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 48 54 57 59 59 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 7 12 11 8 11 16 18 26 26 30 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 0 -1 -1 -5 -6 -5 -5 -1 1 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 114 127 112 97 127 178 207 247 256 251 236 244 239 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.6 26.6 26.7 27.1 27.6 28.1 28.5 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 136 131 127 125 121 121 122 126 132 139 144 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 134 127 123 120 115 115 116 118 123 128 132 138 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 67 66 65 64 67 63 59 57 54 55 51 51 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 18 19 20 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 89 76 63 66 80 75 68 54 40 28 14 1 -3 200 MB DIV 43 41 33 44 46 66 49 37 21 11 28 13 1 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 1 2 2 5 7 6 5 5 7 5 LAND (KM) 1140 1245 1354 1465 1579 1820 2076 2131 2076 2041 2021 1860 1654 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.1 14.7 15.3 15.8 16.8 17.9 19.1 20.4 21.4 22.3 22.9 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 28.0 29.1 30.1 31.1 32.2 34.4 36.7 39.2 41.7 44.0 46.3 48.5 50.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 11 10 4 9 2 4 8 18 32 37 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 468 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 3. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 15. 25. 33. 39. 43. 44. 43. 41. 38. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912014 INVEST 09/09/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912014 INVEST 09/09/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)