* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942014 09/09/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 38 44 54 71 84 95 94 92 83 84 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 38 44 54 71 84 95 94 92 83 84 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 43 48 54 61 69 77 81 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 14 13 11 18 10 4 8 15 11 15 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 4 5 5 5 3 6 1 0 6 3 2 SHEAR DIR 86 78 77 73 63 48 49 6 88 91 118 133 92 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 163 162 161 161 161 161 161 161 162 161 155 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -51.1 -50.9 -50.4 -50.2 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 8 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 82 83 83 84 81 81 77 78 76 76 75 75 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 11 13 15 21 26 30 29 27 21 25 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -1 -2 -1 2 20 23 41 42 87 120 114 116 200 MB DIV 45 46 56 72 84 104 99 106 122 84 87 95 78 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -13 -7 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 360 350 340 343 349 334 306 287 258 205 129 192 195 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 6 4 2 2 1 2 4 8 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 36 37 46 54 61 60 59 56 52 44 35 50 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 17. 25. 31. 28. 27. 19. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 14. 24. 41. 54. 65. 64. 62. 53. 54. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942014 INVEST 09/09/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942014 INVEST 09/09/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##