* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912014 09/10/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 40 50 58 66 71 75 76 73 73 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 40 50 58 66 71 75 76 73 73 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 38 46 53 59 63 64 65 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 12 10 6 1 6 10 13 15 16 19 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -1 -3 0 0 -1 -3 -3 0 0 6 -2 3 SHEAR DIR 105 89 72 81 121 169 203 237 236 257 216 235 219 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.8 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.5 28.0 28.5 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 134 132 128 123 122 123 125 131 137 144 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 136 131 128 123 117 116 117 117 121 125 130 132 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.4 -52.3 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 67 65 65 67 65 63 59 57 53 51 48 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 14 15 16 16 16 18 19 21 23 21 23 850 MB ENV VOR 80 64 70 78 77 68 63 53 43 37 21 4 7 200 MB DIV 54 32 49 57 70 47 51 19 29 34 27 -35 32 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 2 4 4 9 10 10 11 15 12 15 LAND (KM) 1324 1415 1510 1613 1718 1921 2080 2006 1958 1952 1972 1910 1794 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.4 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.9 17.1 18.2 19.5 20.7 21.8 22.9 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 29.6 30.6 31.5 32.5 33.5 35.4 37.6 39.9 42.3 44.4 46.3 48.0 49.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 11 10 11 13 12 12 11 10 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 11 8 9 11 8 3 6 5 6 16 28 36 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 8. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 25. 33. 41. 46. 50. 51. 48. 48. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912014 INVEST 09/10/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912014 INVEST 09/10/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)