* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942014 09/10/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 43 49 62 78 91 99 99 89 85 80 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 43 49 62 78 91 99 99 89 85 80 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 41 47 53 61 70 80 89 92 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 12 13 15 14 11 7 10 8 17 13 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 4 4 5 1 1 -1 0 4 5 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 85 74 71 68 56 52 19 78 79 95 129 131 160 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.7 29.1 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 162 160 159 160 161 161 161 161 163 158 151 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -51.9 -52.8 -51.4 -52.2 -50.7 -50.7 -49.9 -50.2 -49.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 9 7 10 7 10 9 11 8 8 700-500 MB RH 83 84 84 82 82 82 80 78 77 75 75 72 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 12 13 14 17 23 27 30 28 21 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR 0 2 4 10 18 28 41 54 80 110 144 103 73 200 MB DIV 42 53 71 77 113 101 121 95 105 104 83 45 67 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 -2 0 -1 0 -9 -12 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 369 368 371 375 380 358 315 285 241 184 138 235 133 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 4 2 1 1 2 2 5 11 14 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 39 47 59 62 64 64 59 56 49 43 29 52 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 19. 25. 29. 27. 18. 17. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 19. 32. 48. 61. 69. 69. 59. 55. 50. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942014 INVEST 09/10/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942014 INVEST 09/10/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##