* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952014 09/10/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 38 42 48 52 58 63 66 65 64 61 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 38 42 48 52 58 63 66 65 64 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 37 43 49 54 57 60 64 67 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 7 11 12 13 14 11 14 11 15 17 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -3 -4 -2 0 3 1 0 -1 1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 37 57 47 48 63 56 61 76 76 92 103 92 101 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 145 143 144 143 142 142 141 141 142 141 141 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -52.7 -53.2 -52.5 -52.8 -51.8 -52.1 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 73 74 72 69 70 65 61 59 53 50 45 42 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 6 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -9 -17 -13 0 7 20 24 7 18 34 46 45 200 MB DIV 24 31 14 17 14 33 43 42 30 25 63 51 15 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -4 -3 -3 0 -1 0 2 2 4 5 LAND (KM) 1428 1442 1461 1478 1499 1533 1574 1612 1649 1700 1745 1792 1815 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.4 13.0 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.0 14.1 13.9 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 115.8 116.6 117.4 118.2 118.9 120.1 121.2 122.2 123.1 123.8 124.5 124.9 125.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 17 20 20 19 19 21 23 20 18 17 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 17. 23. 28. 33. 38. 41. 40. 39. 36. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952014 INVEST 09/10/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 3.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952014 INVEST 09/10/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##