* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912014 09/10/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 36 40 51 59 67 74 76 76 76 74 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 36 40 51 59 67 74 76 76 76 74 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 39 46 54 60 63 65 66 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 9 7 6 2 5 7 16 10 17 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -2 0 3 3 3 2 SHEAR DIR 79 68 89 104 108 335 246 257 262 264 246 204 239 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.8 27.1 27.6 28.1 28.6 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 133 130 127 124 123 123 126 132 138 145 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 134 129 125 122 118 118 117 118 122 127 131 134 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -52.6 -52.7 -51.7 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 63 63 64 64 63 63 63 58 59 56 53 51 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 17 16 16 18 18 19 21 21 22 24 24 850 MB ENV VOR 65 70 82 78 67 76 60 46 47 35 16 12 5 200 MB DIV 37 50 64 81 74 55 55 16 57 50 -22 44 -10 700-850 TADV -3 -1 2 3 2 2 6 12 10 10 15 17 16 LAND (KM) 1437 1531 1627 1720 1815 2029 2005 1935 1897 1909 1921 1820 1703 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.5 14.9 16.0 17.1 18.3 19.5 20.7 21.8 22.9 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 30.7 31.7 32.6 33.5 34.4 36.4 38.6 41.1 43.3 45.3 47.1 48.9 50.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 11 13 12 12 11 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 6 8 11 10 7 4 9 3 11 18 25 38 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 15. 26. 34. 42. 49. 51. 51. 51. 49. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912014 INVEST 09/10/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912014 INVEST 09/10/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)