* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152014 09/10/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 42 58 74 89 91 89 89 90 88 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 42 58 74 89 91 89 89 90 78 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 34 38 43 49 56 65 73 77 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 14 16 17 11 5 2 13 9 12 3 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 3 6 6 1 3 0 3 6 1 8 3 SHEAR DIR 77 60 60 48 50 32 25 60 94 105 126 186 268 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.7 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 160 160 161 161 162 162 162 161 163 160 160 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -51.9 -52.5 -52.2 -51.9 -51.1 -50.9 -50.0 -50.5 -50.1 -49.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 8 9 8 8 8 10 9 10 8 700-500 MB RH 85 86 84 84 83 77 79 77 75 75 78 76 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 14 14 20 25 31 28 26 25 27 26 850 MB ENV VOR 0 6 10 26 41 39 50 54 85 100 106 88 66 200 MB DIV 53 62 66 100 115 109 79 134 89 119 77 54 34 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 1 0 -2 -4 -16 -9 -4 0 0 LAND (KM) 365 357 350 340 330 301 279 266 223 176 135 264 -14 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 6 11 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 48 50 51 50 50 48 47 48 47 43 29 66 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 12. 20. 29. 25. 21. 22. 23. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 28. 44. 59. 61. 59. 59. 60. 58. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152014 FIFTEEN 09/10/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 FIFTEEN 09/10/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##