* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952014 09/10/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 46 52 58 60 59 58 55 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 46 52 58 60 59 58 55 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 32 35 38 40 42 44 45 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 8 11 8 5 4 8 5 5 8 9 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -4 -3 0 2 5 2 4 2 6 3 2 SHEAR DIR 72 45 61 90 96 51 40 42 77 99 127 87 112 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.2 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 144 142 141 139 136 133 133 132 133 132 130 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.0 -51.8 -51.0 -50.6 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 73 71 67 67 63 58 57 53 50 42 38 34 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -11 -6 0 5 16 32 35 28 38 63 65 68 200 MB DIV 27 6 4 18 30 21 51 27 47 36 46 33 13 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 -1 -1 0 2 1 1 LAND (KM) 1325 1325 1330 1325 1323 1332 1317 1324 1341 1368 1397 1413 1392 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.9 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.5 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 116.5 117.2 117.8 118.3 118.7 119.5 120.0 120.5 121.0 121.6 122.1 122.6 122.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 19 23 27 31 26 22 18 14 14 13 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 21. 27. 33. 35. 34. 33. 30. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952014 INVEST 09/10/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952014 INVEST 09/10/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##