* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962014 09/10/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 40 48 54 58 64 68 69 67 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 40 48 54 58 64 68 69 67 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 22 25 28 32 36 39 43 46 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 9 13 14 14 15 16 19 16 20 16 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -3 -5 -8 -9 -8 -8 -5 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 118 109 82 89 84 73 102 116 118 109 116 93 91 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 142 142 142 142 144 145 145 144 143 141 140 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 72 73 73 74 73 68 65 58 52 46 42 39 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 11 13 15 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 6 7 6 9 17 14 24 23 4 -7 1 6 15 200 MB DIV 61 38 2 14 21 2 21 5 5 4 -9 -11 -7 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 0 1 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2082 2128 2175 2217 2259 2333 2378 2422 2487 2443 2361 2290 2211 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.1 11.9 12.1 LONG(DEG W) 125.5 126.2 126.9 127.6 128.2 129.4 130.3 131.2 132.2 133.2 134.1 134.9 135.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 20 21 23 23 20 17 16 16 16 16 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 20. 28. 34. 38. 44. 48. 49. 47. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962014 INVEST 09/10/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962014 INVEST 09/10/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##