* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912014 09/10/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 42 52 61 68 75 77 77 78 79 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 42 52 61 68 75 77 77 78 79 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 34 42 51 59 63 65 66 66 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 6 4 5 5 9 16 15 23 16 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -1 0 -1 -1 2 -4 SHEAR DIR 59 76 91 94 60 191 272 231 238 220 227 206 213 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.8 27.2 27.8 28.4 28.8 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 129 127 125 123 123 128 135 143 148 151 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 129 125 122 119 118 118 120 125 130 133 134 134 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -52.5 -52.2 -51.6 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 62 64 64 63 62 62 58 55 53 49 49 49 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 15 16 16 17 17 20 21 21 23 26 850 MB ENV VOR 69 78 76 68 70 67 48 37 25 9 -10 -10 -13 200 MB DIV 41 49 61 56 51 58 20 39 53 14 15 17 32 700-850 TADV -3 0 2 1 1 9 9 12 13 15 16 10 10 LAND (KM) 1659 1743 1829 1922 2018 2019 1984 1997 2047 2082 1963 1901 1887 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.8 14.3 14.9 15.4 16.9 18.4 20.2 21.8 23.4 24.7 26.2 27.8 LONG(DEG W) 32.8 33.6 34.5 35.4 36.3 38.2 40.5 42.7 44.7 46.4 48.0 49.3 50.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 11 13 14 13 12 11 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 11 13 6 4 4 9 4 7 19 31 38 33 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 5. 5. 6. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 17. 27. 36. 43. 50. 52. 52. 53. 54. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912014 INVEST 09/10/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912014 INVEST 09/10/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED