* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922014 09/10/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 24 29 34 41 42 45 46 51 51 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 24 29 34 30 28 34 35 40 40 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 26 26 31 33 34 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 7 16 19 11 23 22 25 22 21 18 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 0 1 1 0 0 -6 -2 -5 0 -7 0 SHEAR DIR 13 359 301 359 20 1 13 6 15 11 8 325 302 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.1 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 156 158 160 160 162 166 170 170 169 169 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 134 133 135 135 137 139 142 151 150 148 142 137 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.1 -54.6 -54.4 -54.5 -54.2 -54.5 -53.9 -54.2 -53.7 -54.1 -53.6 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 6 9 6 700-500 MB RH 60 58 55 50 51 50 52 59 63 67 64 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 2 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -92 -79 -82 -104 -106 -83 -68 -26 -28 3 -28 -42 -79 200 MB DIV -25 -25 -37 -1 1 -21 7 35 4 -9 -8 -2 -1 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 -5 -1 -9 -2 -6 0 -3 0 LAND (KM) 504 454 406 351 297 200 54 -66 -26 81 205 166 168 LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.6 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.3 28.8 LONG(DEG W) 75.1 75.6 76.0 76.6 77.1 78.1 79.6 80.9 82.3 83.6 84.9 86.0 86.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 50 54 53 49 44 44 48 66 56 38 28 34 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 14. 21. 22. 25. 26. 31. 31. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922014 INVEST 09/10/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922014 INVEST 09/10/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922014 INVEST 09/10/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)