* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152014 09/10/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 48 56 71 86 101 102 101 104 106 104 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 48 56 71 86 101 102 101 104 106 81 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 44 47 54 62 71 81 89 94 95 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 19 17 12 9 0 4 11 11 9 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 6 5 2 3 4 2 3 1 1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 72 59 58 60 54 19 231 93 109 121 159 201 214 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.9 29.6 29.4 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 160 160 161 161 161 161 161 165 162 158 160 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -51.8 -52.4 -52.7 -51.6 -52.2 -50.9 -50.6 -50.0 -49.9 -49.3 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 8 10 7 11 9 12 8 9 6 700-500 MB RH 86 83 83 82 80 80 77 76 77 77 77 77 79 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 15 16 19 23 29 34 32 30 32 34 34 850 MB ENV VOR 8 12 30 42 40 49 62 94 129 136 118 94 77 200 MB DIV 54 65 97 98 94 107 99 94 66 62 77 76 17 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 1 2 -1 -1 -6 -6 -3 -3 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 337 334 331 322 311 270 226 157 114 73 231 51 -31 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.8 17.9 19.5 21.3 22.8 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 102.8 102.9 103.0 103.0 103.0 103.2 103.2 103.6 104.5 105.9 107.8 109.3 110.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 1 1 1 2 2 3 6 8 12 12 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 57 58 59 58 57 52 46 45 45 28 59 26 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 7. 14. 23. 31. 28. 26. 29. 31. 31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 21. 36. 51. 66. 67. 66. 69. 71. 69. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152014 FIFTEEN 09/10/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 FIFTEEN 09/10/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##