* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952014 09/10/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 35 40 44 48 50 49 46 43 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 35 40 44 48 50 49 46 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 33 34 36 37 38 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 9 9 7 11 6 7 7 3 8 19 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 2 3 3 2 0 4 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 25 36 67 67 47 75 42 43 34 103 41 106 111 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.6 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 143 141 140 136 135 132 131 129 129 127 125 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.1 -51.9 -51.2 -51.3 -50.4 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 70 66 65 62 62 58 57 52 49 44 42 42 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -12 -8 -3 -4 7 15 27 22 47 47 63 109 200 MB DIV 7 17 32 39 16 17 23 29 43 52 43 41 35 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -3 -4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 LAND (KM) 1314 1308 1308 1305 1306 1292 1304 1303 1322 1328 1336 1289 1175 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.4 15.7 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.6 17.0 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 116.8 117.4 118.0 118.5 118.9 119.6 120.2 120.7 121.2 121.5 121.7 121.5 120.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 16 20 23 26 23 19 14 11 9 9 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 15. 20. 23. 25. 24. 21. 18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952014 INVEST 09/10/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952014 INVEST 09/10/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##