* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962014 09/10/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 28 33 38 48 57 61 63 64 64 64 63 V (KT) LAND 20 24 28 33 38 48 57 61 63 64 64 64 63 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 29 34 39 44 48 52 55 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 10 13 12 18 19 20 21 23 21 22 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -6 -7 -9 -10 -8 -8 -4 -4 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 87 60 75 72 65 85 95 102 99 92 101 91 100 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 141 141 142 143 144 145 145 144 142 142 140 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 73 73 75 74 73 70 66 60 56 49 47 39 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 7 8 14 18 18 20 28 22 12 5 10 3 10 200 MB DIV 50 34 43 46 32 26 26 26 19 38 30 -4 -18 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 2125 2168 2213 2248 2283 2343 2388 2428 2479 2463 2409 2359 2314 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.4 12.3 11.9 11.7 11.8 LONG(DEG W) 126.1 126.8 127.5 128.0 128.6 129.7 130.5 131.4 132.2 133.0 133.7 134.3 134.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 5 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 21 23 24 22 19 16 16 16 18 17 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 17. 17. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 28. 37. 41. 43. 44. 44. 44. 43. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962014 INVEST 09/10/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962014 INVEST 09/10/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##