* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/10/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 49 56 72 88 100 106 108 111 107 106 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 49 56 72 88 100 106 108 111 88 77 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 45 48 56 64 74 84 93 98 80 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 16 11 9 10 5 3 6 11 10 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 5 3 4 2 0 1 2 1 -1 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 64 59 56 53 25 24 352 60 123 137 170 196 214 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.3 29.4 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 160 160 160 160 160 161 162 163 159 159 154 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -51.2 -50.6 -50.3 -49.3 -49.6 -49.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 7 7 700-500 MB RH 83 82 82 80 78 78 76 77 78 77 75 73 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 19 21 26 31 35 36 36 38 36 37 850 MB ENV VOR 10 27 38 37 35 62 66 98 138 122 113 81 61 200 MB DIV 52 72 87 92 112 107 91 64 80 78 101 39 9 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 3 2 -1 -1 -6 -10 -8 -4 -1 1 LAND (KM) 312 297 282 277 271 244 201 148 103 127 138 -8 -1 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.9 16.4 17.3 18.5 20.2 22.1 23.7 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 103.1 103.2 103.3 103.3 103.3 103.5 103.7 104.3 105.4 106.9 108.9 110.5 111.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 1 0 1 2 4 7 10 12 12 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 59 57 56 55 54 51 47 45 37 35 32 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 8. 16. 24. 30. 32. 32. 35. 32. 32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 14. 21. 37. 53. 65. 71. 73. 76. 72. 71. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/10/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/10/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##