* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952014 09/10/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 34 38 41 46 47 45 44 43 44 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 34 38 41 46 47 45 44 43 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 29 30 31 33 33 32 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 14 14 14 13 15 18 19 24 35 31 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 1 4 3 5 1 0 9 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 12 33 46 52 52 81 70 62 83 79 52 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.3 28.4 28.1 27.9 29.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 142 141 140 141 146 148 146 145 157 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -51.8 -51.3 -50.5 -50.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 66 65 63 61 60 59 61 65 71 77 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -2 1 -4 -5 4 6 -3 98 68 59 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 40 48 29 13 48 34 53 99 115 139 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -4 -2 -1 2 3 10 18 18 -21 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1407 1392 1379 1334 1290 1168 1114 1056 965 698 418 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 5 5 5 6 8 10 12 14 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 23 25 26 26 14 17 15 15 18 46 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 24. 28. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 13. 16. 21. 22. 20. 19. 18. 19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952014 INVEST 09/10/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952014 INVEST 09/10/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##