* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962014 09/10/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 30 36 44 49 54 57 59 59 60 60 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 30 36 44 49 54 57 59 59 60 60 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 32 34 37 39 41 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 14 17 20 20 21 23 24 26 23 26 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -5 -7 -7 -8 -8 -7 -5 -5 -3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 51 62 67 66 67 89 98 99 96 100 92 101 91 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 141 141 142 143 143 144 143 143 142 141 141 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 74 74 74 74 72 69 62 58 53 49 44 40 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 9 11 11 11 11 13 13 12 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 18 20 20 15 16 21 18 17 12 13 -3 8 0 200 MB DIV 47 56 41 25 20 34 31 34 17 1 -7 9 -4 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -1 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2169 2214 2259 2291 2323 2367 2411 2454 2529 2546 2510 2485 2451 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.0 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.6 11.9 11.9 11.7 11.3 11.0 10.9 11.2 LONG(DEG W) 126.7 127.4 128.0 128.5 129.1 129.9 130.7 131.3 132.1 132.6 133.1 133.4 133.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 22 23 23 21 18 17 17 18 18 18 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 17. 17. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 6. 7. 9. 10. 8. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 16. 24. 29. 34. 37. 39. 39. 40. 40. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962014 INVEST 09/10/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962014 INVEST 09/10/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##