* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912014 09/11/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 44 54 61 69 74 77 77 79 80 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 44 54 61 69 74 77 77 79 80 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 31 35 43 52 58 62 64 65 66 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 5 3 4 6 13 14 14 18 22 15 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -2 -4 -3 -2 0 6 0 0 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 136 122 42 64 165 245 232 244 215 223 219 224 208 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.4 27.9 28.4 28.9 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 127 125 124 123 122 122 125 129 136 143 150 154 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 119 118 116 115 115 117 119 125 130 136 137 133 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 63 61 60 61 60 59 57 56 53 52 52 54 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 15 15 16 16 19 21 22 23 27 30 850 MB ENV VOR 85 74 72 70 66 62 55 49 31 13 11 3 0 200 MB DIV 48 60 57 83 84 38 33 50 44 17 17 36 47 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 3 3 5 9 11 20 19 18 9 LAND (KM) 1891 1986 2011 1985 1964 1921 1920 1934 1995 1997 1912 1885 1936 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.1 15.4 16.0 16.5 17.6 19.0 20.3 21.7 23.2 24.9 26.8 28.9 LONG(DEG W) 35.1 36.0 36.9 37.7 38.5 40.4 42.2 44.0 45.6 47.2 48.6 49.8 50.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 9 9 10 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 7 11 13 5 3 13 23 34 37 34 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 11. 9. 8. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 9. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 29. 36. 44. 49. 52. 52. 54. 55. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912014 INVEST 09/11/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 3.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912014 INVEST 09/11/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912014 INVEST 09/11/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)