* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922014 09/11/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 33 40 42 42 40 44 46 50 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 33 29 28 31 29 33 35 39 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 25 26 30 31 32 33 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 13 19 15 13 24 26 29 29 25 16 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -5 -2 -5 -2 -5 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 300 347 15 31 1 13 11 13 19 10 340 346 261 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 30.0 30.5 30.5 30.3 30.1 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 160 159 160 162 168 170 169 170 169 167 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 134 135 134 135 139 144 152 152 149 143 140 136 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.8 -54.7 -54.6 -54.4 -54.5 -53.9 -54.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -53.8 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 10 11 7 9 6 9 700-500 MB RH 55 50 49 49 49 51 58 62 65 63 60 60 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 1 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -82 -106 -112 -94 -86 -74 -35 -41 -10 -32 -36 -81 -81 200 MB DIV -37 6 0 -20 -13 0 27 -12 -20 -27 -35 -5 32 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 0 -7 -1 -7 -1 -6 0 -2 0 -2 LAND (KM) 356 307 260 217 173 39 -85 -7 99 217 211 227 151 LAT (DEG N) 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 76.5 77.0 77.5 78.0 78.4 79.8 81.1 82.5 83.7 85.0 86.1 87.2 87.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 49 44 42 42 44 47 64 11 36 31 39 62 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 817 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 6. 7. 9. 8. 4. -1. -5. -7. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 20. 22. 22. 20. 24. 26. 30. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922014 INVEST 09/11/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922014 INVEST 09/11/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922014 INVEST 09/11/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED