* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/11/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 46 52 60 75 88 97 104 105 109 106 98 V (KT) LAND 40 42 46 52 60 75 88 97 104 105 109 106 98 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 45 48 51 57 64 73 81 89 92 90 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 12 11 11 11 5 4 7 7 9 3 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 3 7 3 0 -2 3 1 3 -1 4 3 SHEAR DIR 58 47 50 39 47 18 32 97 64 158 126 196 177 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.6 28.9 28.7 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 160 158 159 159 158 158 158 162 155 152 144 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 -51.4 -52.2 -51.1 -51.1 -50.3 -50.1 -49.6 -49.8 -48.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 8 9 10 7 10 8 11 8 9 6 7 700-500 MB RH 82 82 81 77 79 76 76 76 79 78 78 77 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 17 20 23 28 32 34 36 36 39 39 36 850 MB ENV VOR 30 34 25 25 42 50 60 87 111 101 116 85 69 200 MB DIV 78 79 72 106 133 92 96 89 87 56 82 47 17 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 3 6 0 0 -7 -8 -3 -6 -11 -3 LAND (KM) 285 274 266 265 265 262 227 216 191 226 123 79 61 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 15.8 15.9 15.9 16.1 16.7 17.3 18.1 19.6 21.8 23.5 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 103.4 103.6 103.8 103.9 104.0 104.3 104.7 105.3 106.2 107.7 109.8 111.5 112.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 1 2 2 4 5 8 12 13 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 57 57 55 55 54 52 45 41 33 38 19 5 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 26. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 9. 17. 24. 28. 31. 31. 36. 35. 31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 12. 20. 35. 48. 57. 64. 65. 69. 66. 58. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/11/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/11/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##