* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952014 09/11/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 36 38 41 44 46 47 46 44 40 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 36 38 41 44 46 47 46 44 40 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 34 35 35 36 36 35 36 37 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 15 17 17 13 16 16 16 20 22 19 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 4 1 0 0 4 3 2 -1 2 3 1 SHEAR DIR 42 45 50 66 85 85 100 99 74 52 59 41 56 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.4 28.5 29.0 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 138 138 139 141 144 143 143 148 149 156 150 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -52.3 -52.3 -51.6 -51.9 -50.6 -50.8 -50.0 -50.1 -49.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 8 7 9 700-500 MB RH 64 63 61 59 59 59 63 70 74 79 82 81 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 6 -3 -4 2 1 24 90 78 68 79 67 95 200 MB DIV 46 57 44 21 30 39 58 95 119 124 120 0 69 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -4 -2 1 4 6 16 20 -12 -23 -9 -17 LAND (KM) 1332 1314 1298 1236 1174 1022 962 908 721 522 383 365 162 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 4 6 6 8 11 13 10 8 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 25 19 13 12 27 16 18 21 18 29 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 16. 14. 10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952014 INVEST 09/11/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952014 INVEST 09/11/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##