* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922014 09/11/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 27 32 37 39 41 42 45 48 49 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 27 26 31 34 35 36 39 43 44 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 22 28 30 31 33 34 36 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 18 13 17 19 25 23 27 21 22 10 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -5 -1 -2 -1 -2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 346 12 21 8 15 34 29 21 14 4 342 321 307 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 30.1 30.6 30.5 30.2 30.0 29.7 29.5 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 162 162 164 170 171 171 171 169 163 159 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 137 138 139 142 149 159 158 154 149 143 135 130 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.8 -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 12 11 12 10 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 52 51 50 51 50 54 58 59 61 58 58 61 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -109 -114 -96 -89 -92 -67 -62 -53 -52 -48 -78 -89 -81 200 MB DIV 10 3 -15 -25 -6 2 5 -17 -15 -32 -3 22 10 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -4 -6 0 -7 -2 -5 0 -2 4 3 LAND (KM) 327 267 207 143 80 -86 46 203 350 243 189 144 70 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.7 27.0 27.4 28.3 29.1 LONG(DEG W) 76.8 77.4 78.0 78.6 79.3 81.0 82.7 84.5 86.5 88.6 90.6 92.2 93.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 48 30 45 48 50 72 54 32 73 97 62 43 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 7. 3. -1. -4. -6. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 12. 17. 19. 21. 22. 25. 28. 29. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922014 INVEST 09/11/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922014 INVEST 09/11/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922014 INVEST 09/11/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED