* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/11/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 51 57 64 76 89 94 99 101 105 100 91 V (KT) LAND 45 47 51 57 64 76 89 94 99 101 105 100 91 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 53 56 59 65 71 76 80 82 81 78 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 13 13 14 12 4 5 5 13 7 5 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 3 3 0 1 0 3 0 -2 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 57 49 44 52 62 16 328 104 129 130 103 167 151 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.3 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.3 27.7 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 159 158 158 159 156 155 156 153 148 141 126 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -51.7 -52.2 -51.7 -51.2 -50.8 -50.7 -49.7 -49.8 -49.1 -49.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 8 7 6 4 700-500 MB RH 84 82 79 80 78 74 77 77 77 74 74 72 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 18 21 23 26 29 33 34 35 36 39 37 36 850 MB ENV VOR 27 14 16 37 40 44 73 84 103 100 102 85 65 200 MB DIV 83 73 86 115 80 81 101 73 77 116 55 40 17 700-850 TADV 0 3 4 9 8 -1 -4 -3 -9 -5 -9 -6 -1 LAND (KM) 301 305 310 315 321 313 291 263 300 326 165 167 246 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.8 16.5 17.4 18.5 20.0 21.9 23.4 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 103.9 104.1 104.3 104.4 104.5 104.7 105.4 106.4 107.8 109.5 111.2 112.9 114.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 1 1 1 3 6 8 10 12 12 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 61 61 61 62 62 59 47 33 24 28 14 12 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 34.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -15. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 7. 12. 19. 26. 28. 30. 31. 36. 33. 30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 12. 19. 31. 44. 49. 54. 56. 60. 55. 46. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/11/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/11/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##