* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962014 09/11/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 33 37 39 41 43 44 44 45 47 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 33 37 39 41 43 44 44 45 47 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 23 24 24 24 25 25 25 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 24 23 25 28 32 31 29 34 35 30 27 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -3 -2 -5 -8 -2 -2 -6 -4 1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 54 61 68 77 85 98 100 100 105 108 107 84 81 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 140 139 140 141 142 142 142 142 142 141 141 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.9 -53.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 79 77 74 72 69 63 60 57 52 47 44 40 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 26 12 7 4 7 1 6 11 1 0 2 -8 -3 200 MB DIV 84 52 37 42 57 20 23 -11 3 4 1 -7 16 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2187 2219 2252 2275 2299 2355 2428 2517 2613 2593 2549 2501 2500 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.1 10.9 10.5 10.1 10.0 10.0 10.4 LONG(DEG W) 126.5 127.1 127.7 128.1 128.5 129.3 130.2 131.1 131.9 132.7 133.2 133.7 133.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 21 22 23 22 19 16 15 14 14 15 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 26. 30. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -11. -14. -16. -15. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. 25. 27. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962014 INVEST 09/11/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962014 INVEST 09/11/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##