* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912014 09/11/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 41 45 50 57 59 63 65 69 71 71 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 41 45 50 57 59 63 65 69 71 71 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 41 46 49 50 51 53 55 59 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 1 8 10 13 18 20 17 16 20 14 18 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 6 0 0 -2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 268 131 200 221 239 230 239 217 218 198 210 199 248 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 27.1 27.6 28.2 28.7 29.0 29.1 28.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 122 123 123 126 132 140 147 152 153 146 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 116 116 116 116 118 122 128 133 135 135 126 113 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.0 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 60 59 58 59 56 56 56 54 53 52 52 51 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 15 16 16 20 20 22 24 28 32 34 850 MB ENV VOR 70 63 59 53 53 42 35 22 -2 3 13 16 18 200 MB DIV 39 42 51 45 31 48 40 51 27 38 48 44 32 700-850 TADV 2 4 4 4 7 7 14 13 21 14 13 5 7 LAND (KM) 2050 2042 2019 1993 1975 1973 1996 2056 1966 1915 1924 1894 1662 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.3 19.8 21.2 22.7 24.2 25.9 27.7 29.8 31.9 LONG(DEG W) 36.6 37.5 38.4 39.4 40.5 42.5 44.5 46.2 47.8 49.0 49.9 50.2 50.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 7 10 11 11 7 8 17 32 36 31 39 16 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 18. 21. 23. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 3. 3. 6. 7. 10. 13. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 20. 27. 29. 33. 36. 39. 41. 41. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912014 INVEST 09/11/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912014 INVEST 09/11/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912014 INVEST 09/11/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)