* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922014 09/11/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 32 36 40 38 40 42 46 46 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 23 25 30 34 32 35 37 35 30 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 24 28 30 32 33 35 33 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 20 14 17 21 21 24 25 23 19 15 19 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 -6 -1 -5 -3 -5 1 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 14 34 21 10 23 24 24 12 14 343 331 300 280 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 30.3 30.5 30.3 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 162 163 163 170 171 170 170 166 162 160 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 135 138 140 140 151 156 152 148 142 137 133 131 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.5 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -53.8 -54.2 -53.4 -53.8 -53.4 -54.2 -53.3 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 12 10 10 7 9 6 9 6 700-500 MB RH 51 51 51 51 54 58 61 68 64 63 63 66 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 1 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -112 -95 -88 -92 -85 -46 -61 -27 -57 -45 -98 -81 -96 200 MB DIV 3 -1 -11 -4 -3 18 8 -7 -21 -8 -7 39 3 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -5 -1 -8 0 -7 -1 -3 -1 3 1 LAND (KM) 238 189 142 68 -5 -59 81 230 275 145 72 -14 -29 LAT (DEG N) 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.6 28.0 28.5 29.4 30.4 LONG(DEG W) 77.7 78.2 78.7 79.4 80.2 81.7 83.4 85.1 86.9 88.5 89.8 90.5 90.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 5 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 46 48 50 50 23 59 44 31 65 71 46 44 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 7. 2. -2. -5. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 16. 20. 18. 20. 22. 26. 26. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922014 INVEST 09/11/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922014 INVEST 09/11/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922014 INVEST 09/11/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED