* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/11/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 53 60 67 80 92 98 101 104 103 98 87 V (KT) LAND 45 48 53 60 67 80 92 98 101 104 103 98 87 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 51 54 57 63 70 78 83 85 84 80 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 15 15 13 10 1 5 10 9 3 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 3 2 0 -2 -1 0 -4 0 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 48 47 53 58 48 2 296 25 128 109 198 165 156 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.2 29.0 29.0 28.3 27.8 26.7 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 159 158 158 159 156 155 155 148 143 131 118 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -51.7 -52.0 -52.4 -51.3 -51.2 -50.8 -50.2 -49.7 -49.5 -48.4 -49.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 7 8 7 10 7 8 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 82 79 80 78 77 80 79 77 76 78 75 75 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 25 27 30 33 36 38 39 41 41 39 36 850 MB ENV VOR 16 19 40 42 37 46 66 93 74 91 85 85 55 200 MB DIV 70 84 113 77 74 88 78 120 95 79 51 75 32 700-850 TADV 3 4 9 8 3 0 -2 -4 -7 -5 -11 0 -2 LAND (KM) 310 317 325 328 330 333 304 295 360 254 237 216 291 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.7 16.7 17.9 19.2 20.7 22.4 23.9 25.0 LONG(DEG W) 104.1 104.3 104.4 104.5 104.5 104.9 105.9 107.3 108.9 110.7 112.5 114.2 115.9 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 0 1 4 8 10 11 12 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 64 65 66 67 67 67 39 21 24 16 6 11 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 20. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 7. 11. 18. 24. 27. 28. 31. 31. 29. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 15. 22. 35. 47. 53. 56. 59. 58. 53. 42. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/11/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 65.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/11/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##