* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/11/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 58 64 72 84 94 97 99 99 98 89 79 V (KT) LAND 50 53 58 64 72 84 94 97 99 99 98 89 79 V (KT) LGE mod 50 53 55 58 61 67 74 81 84 82 77 71 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 20 12 9 6 9 6 11 5 1 5 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 3 2 -1 0 0 1 -2 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 44 52 42 48 15 350 77 78 128 112 123 123 164 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.5 28.9 28.7 28.6 27.8 27.1 26.2 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 158 157 158 158 153 152 151 143 135 125 118 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 -51.8 -51.5 -51.2 -50.8 -49.7 -49.7 -49.3 -49.1 -49.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 6 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 80 82 82 81 79 79 81 79 78 76 73 72 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 23 27 28 32 34 37 38 39 40 40 37 35 850 MB ENV VOR 14 34 33 29 42 54 89 97 95 91 97 77 76 200 MB DIV 74 101 85 85 72 61 91 75 133 61 25 47 35 700-850 TADV 0 3 2 1 0 -2 -3 -6 -5 -6 -5 -4 -1 LAND (KM) 354 367 380 380 381 367 340 358 377 274 293 299 336 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.2 15.1 15.2 15.2 15.7 16.7 18.0 19.5 21.0 22.4 23.7 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 104.4 104.6 104.7 104.8 104.9 105.5 106.6 108.1 109.9 111.7 113.5 115.0 116.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 1 1 2 6 8 11 11 11 11 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 73 76 78 79 79 69 32 17 20 12 5 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 16. 16. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -15. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 4. 7. 12. 18. 23. 25. 28. 28. 29. 25. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 22. 34. 44. 47. 49. 49. 48. 39. 29. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/11/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 77.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/11/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##