* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN EP162014 09/11/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 31 31 33 36 36 37 38 39 40 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 31 31 33 36 36 37 38 39 40 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 29 28 29 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 8 8 11 13 10 20 16 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 2 -2 -3 1 0 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 35 57 39 52 66 85 101 83 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.5 27.3 28.0 28.2 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 129 126 125 127 136 144 147 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 54 52 53 51 56 60 71 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 15 19 13 24 38 66 128 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 13 32 29 19 30 48 65 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 0 0 1 -2 0 4 13 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1253 1211 1170 1127 1085 1044 1002 974 909 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.2 17.3 16.8 15.8 14.9 14.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.1 120.1 120.0 119.5 119.0 117.6 115.9 113.8 111.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 5 6 9 10 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 5 4 4 3 6 20 15 17 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 23. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162014 SIXTEEN 09/11/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162014 SIXTEEN 09/11/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##