* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/12/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 45 48 53 60 62 67 71 75 77 77 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 45 48 53 60 62 67 71 75 77 77 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 42 43 46 48 50 53 56 61 65 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 13 16 19 16 19 16 16 14 13 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -3 0 0 3 0 6 -2 4 0 8 SHEAR DIR 208 224 229 217 214 236 201 202 179 187 174 181 186 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.6 28.2 28.7 29.1 29.4 29.4 28.9 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 123 123 123 123 126 132 140 147 153 158 158 149 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 117 116 116 118 123 130 134 137 140 137 126 117 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -53.1 -52.7 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 54 55 53 54 53 52 49 48 48 47 47 47 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 15 16 17 20 20 23 25 29 32 33 850 MB ENV VOR 57 51 48 47 44 44 32 14 21 9 9 4 1 200 MB DIV 49 49 31 36 50 38 30 7 36 7 46 48 48 700-850 TADV 2 4 7 7 3 5 7 12 5 11 6 3 4 LAND (KM) 1974 1944 1919 1890 1870 1885 1925 1820 1695 1662 1701 1771 1732 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.6 18.2 18.7 19.2 20.5 22.1 23.6 24.9 26.4 28.1 29.6 30.8 LONG(DEG W) 38.9 40.0 41.2 42.2 43.3 45.4 47.3 49.1 50.9 52.1 52.9 53.4 53.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 9 6 6 9 14 25 37 38 36 31 16 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 9. 10. 13. 14. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 18. 25. 27. 32. 36. 40. 42. 42. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/12/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/12/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/12/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)