* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922014 09/12/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 34 38 44 52 52 54 51 53 50 50 V (KT) LAND 25 28 26 26 26 36 43 44 46 42 44 34 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 25 26 26 32 36 40 43 45 47 38 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 17 17 15 21 23 18 18 17 26 27 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 2 0 -3 -4 -5 0 -7 5 -4 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 30 10 20 34 25 28 19 12 334 323 292 297 267 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.2 30.5 30.5 30.3 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 166 170 170 170 171 169 165 160 156 154 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 142 144 149 155 156 154 149 143 136 130 127 129 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -53.8 -53.5 -54.1 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 11 10 10 6 9 6 9 5 8 700-500 MB RH 53 53 55 57 61 62 65 63 63 63 66 68 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 5 5 3 4 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR -89 -98 -92 -67 -58 -63 -32 -66 -57 -104 -79 -97 -75 200 MB DIV -2 13 0 12 27 5 6 -8 -3 -15 39 -10 21 700-850 TADV -3 -4 0 0 -4 -1 -7 -4 -2 -5 4 3 -1 LAND (KM) 101 25 -48 -74 -8 133 297 272 156 91 38 -48 -43 LAT (DEG N) 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.8 27.1 27.7 28.3 29.3 30.1 30.6 LONG(DEG W) 79.1 79.9 80.6 81.4 82.1 83.8 85.6 87.7 89.5 91.0 91.7 91.5 90.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 8 6 5 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 51 48 71 54 57 33 40 109 61 43 29 36 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -3. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 1. -2. -1. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 13. 19. 27. 28. 29. 26. 28. 25. 25. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922014 INVEST 09/12/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922014 INVEST 09/12/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922014 INVEST 09/12/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED