* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/12/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 58 62 72 81 84 86 85 83 75 67 V (KT) LAND 50 51 53 58 62 72 81 84 86 85 83 75 67 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 52 53 54 56 60 65 67 66 63 58 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 24 17 13 12 4 4 7 12 3 4 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 -1 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 44 41 45 22 14 3 50 127 111 103 157 109 160 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.1 27.4 26.5 25.7 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 158 157 157 153 153 152 146 138 129 120 115 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -52.4 -52.1 -51.5 -51.9 -50.6 -50.3 -49.3 -49.6 -48.9 -49.7 -48.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 8 9 7 10 8 8 6 5 3 3 700-500 MB RH 82 81 80 78 78 78 77 76 75 73 68 67 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 25 27 29 29 33 36 38 39 40 39 38 36 850 MB ENV VOR 31 29 24 34 51 63 103 91 106 82 73 64 64 200 MB DIV 66 68 69 62 80 61 142 102 47 73 21 33 30 700-850 TADV 4 3 3 0 -2 -3 -5 -1 -3 -6 -3 -4 0 LAND (KM) 336 339 343 342 343 339 334 403 279 297 293 397 443 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.5 17.7 19.1 20.6 22.0 23.2 24.1 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 104.6 104.8 104.9 105.2 105.4 106.2 107.6 109.3 111.1 112.9 114.6 116.3 117.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 3 3 7 10 11 11 10 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 69 69 70 68 63 39 18 20 15 8 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 15. 15. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -15. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 6. 8. 15. 20. 23. 25. 26. 25. 23. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 8. 12. 22. 31. 34. 36. 35. 33. 25. 17. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/12/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/12/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##