* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/12/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 42 44 49 53 60 66 72 75 77 74 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 42 44 49 53 60 66 72 75 77 74 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 39 40 41 43 45 49 54 60 66 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 15 17 15 12 14 9 11 12 18 17 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 1 4 5 3 3 1 0 0 4 4 SHEAR DIR 223 230 209 212 221 192 206 163 182 133 169 160 191 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.8 28.3 28.7 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.4 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 125 126 128 134 141 147 155 160 162 158 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 117 118 118 120 124 129 135 140 143 142 135 123 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -51.4 -51.5 -50.6 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 54 53 53 53 54 51 51 48 45 45 41 42 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 18 19 20 22 22 24 26 29 32 34 34 850 MB ENV VOR 52 47 45 48 48 39 34 30 14 18 12 27 30 200 MB DIV 35 21 48 57 52 35 -8 57 21 54 30 65 23 700-850 TADV 2 5 6 4 6 10 16 11 11 5 5 1 3 LAND (KM) 1848 1807 1770 1758 1756 1811 1754 1631 1534 1479 1468 1517 1619 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.7 19.2 20.6 21.7 22.9 24.4 25.9 27.4 28.9 30.3 LONG(DEG W) 41.1 42.2 43.3 44.3 45.4 47.2 49.1 50.8 52.4 53.9 55.3 56.3 56.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 9 16 12 15 23 33 35 35 27 18 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 16. 19. 21. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 8. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 18. 25. 31. 37. 40. 42. 39. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/12/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/12/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/12/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)