* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922014 09/12/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 36 41 42 42 40 40 39 38 V (KT) LAND 25 23 25 25 29 33 38 39 39 32 29 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 24 25 29 30 33 34 36 32 29 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 22 21 17 21 25 24 20 25 19 33 31 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 -1 -4 -3 -4 -4 -2 0 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 13 16 30 17 9 18 12 345 327 299 293 269 269 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 30.1 30.4 30.5 30.4 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.3 28.6 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 170 170 170 171 171 167 163 158 155 144 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 142 146 152 155 155 150 145 139 132 129 121 116 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.8 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 11 10 10 7 8 5 8 6 8 5 700-500 MB RH 53 55 57 61 64 64 67 63 62 64 68 73 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -89 -89 -66 -45 -47 -39 -43 -58 -89 -102 -100 -68 -46 200 MB DIV 13 2 14 31 23 -5 5 -17 11 -3 26 0 15 700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 -3 -8 -2 -7 -3 -7 0 4 0 4 LAND (KM) 41 -30 -95 -35 19 171 273 165 69 -11 -75 -128 -200 LAT (DEG N) 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.9 28.5 29.4 30.4 31.5 32.4 LONG(DEG W) 79.7 80.5 81.2 81.9 82.7 84.4 86.4 88.3 89.9 91.0 91.1 90.5 88.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 7 7 8 9 8 7 5 6 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 49 74 66 62 46 29 46 79 46 43 28 10 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 17. 17. 15. 15. 14. 13. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922014 INVEST 09/12/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922014 INVEST 09/12/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922014 INVEST 09/12/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED