* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/12/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 51 54 60 73 79 83 84 84 80 72 60 V (KT) LAND 50 49 51 54 60 73 79 83 84 84 80 72 60 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 50 50 51 54 59 63 64 62 57 51 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 12 11 13 12 4 10 7 4 3 12 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -3 -3 0 -4 0 0 2 -4 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 37 28 28 18 12 72 68 140 143 143 107 143 178 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.5 26.7 26.0 25.5 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 159 157 156 153 152 148 140 131 123 118 113 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.0 -50.6 -50.0 -49.7 -49.2 -49.5 -49.6 -49.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 8 8 8 8 6 5 3 2 0 700-500 MB RH 81 80 78 78 77 79 77 79 75 74 72 68 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 28 30 32 34 38 38 39 40 39 38 36 33 850 MB ENV VOR 26 23 37 51 53 77 90 90 90 90 71 64 78 200 MB DIV 73 65 81 64 56 93 82 80 73 39 52 20 7 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -8 -4 -7 -2 -4 -3 1 LAND (KM) 356 352 348 349 354 342 363 368 318 329 364 455 564 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.8 18.2 19.6 21.1 22.4 23.5 24.2 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 104.8 104.9 105.0 105.4 105.7 106.8 108.3 110.3 112.4 114.2 115.6 117.4 119.4 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 3 4 5 8 11 12 11 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 73 72 71 66 58 28 17 21 10 5 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 36.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 14. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 6. 10. 19. 20. 22. 23. 22. 21. 18. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. -6. -3. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 5. 10. 23. 29. 33. 34. 34. 30. 22. 10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/12/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 36.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/12/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##